Zhuge Liang, styled Kongming, was a renowned politician, military strategist, and literati in Chinese history, known as the "Wise One". However, during his Northern Expeditions, there were some fatal missteps. This article will analyze the reasons for Zhuge Liang's failure in the Northern Expeditions from two aspects: improper personnel selection and inaccurate weather prediction.

Firstly, improper personnel selection:

1. Ma Su's Loss of Jieting

During Zhuge Liang's Northern Expeditions, he sent Ma Su to defend Jieting. However, Ma Su was not an outstanding general, and his military prowess was far inferior to Zhuge Liang's. In the battle of Jieting, Ma Su was overconfident and did not follow Zhuge Liang's advice, resulting in the army falling into the enemy's encirclement and ultimate defeat. This defeat caused Zhuge Liang to lose an important stronghold for attacking Chang'an and exposed his mistake in personnel selection.

2. Wei Yan's Independent Command

During Zhuge Liang's Northern Expeditions, he repeatedly sent Wei Yan to fight independently. However, Wei Yan was not an outstanding general, and his military prowess was also far inferior to Zhuge Liang's. In Wei Yan's independent battles, he suffered many defeats and heavy losses. This not only exposed Zhuge Liang's mistake in personnel selection but also dampened the morale and combat effectiveness of his army.

Secondly, inaccurate weather prediction:

1. Failure to Predict Heavy Rain

During Zhuge Liang's Northern Expeditions, he predicted that a heavy rain would soon come. However, the rain did not arrive as expected but suddenly fell when Zhuge Liang's army was withdrawing. The rain trapped Zhuge Liang's army in a difficult situation, preventing them from withdrawing on time. As a result, they were pursued by the enemy and suffered heavy losses. This incident exposed Zhuge Liang's mistake in weather prediction.

2. Failure to Predict Heavy Snow

During Zhuge Liang's Northern Expeditions, he also predicted that a heavy snowfall would soon occur. However, the snow did not arrive as expected but suddenly fell during Zhuge Liang's army's march. The snow trapped Zhuge Liang's army in a difficult situation, preventing them from marching on time. They were ultimately forced to abandon their plan to attack Chang'an. This incident also exposed Zhuge Liang's mistake in weather prediction.

In summary, there were many reasons for Zhuge Liang's failure in the Northern Expeditions, among which improper personnel selection and inaccurate weather prediction were two fatal factors. These mistakes caused heavy losses and dampened the morale of Zhuge Liang's army, ultimately leading to the failure of the Northern Expeditions. However, despite making some mistakes in the Northern Expeditions, Zhuge Liang remains a great politician, military strategist, and literati in Chinese history.

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